Calculate Poisson Odds
Model scorelines and results from each side's expected goals.
How to Use This Calculator
- Drop in the home side’s expected goals (pull it from your own read or xG data)
- Drop in the away side’s expected goals
- Get instant probabilities for home win, draw, away win, over/under 2.5, and BTTS
- Tap into the scoreline probability grid to map out specific score calls
Formula
Poisson Probability: P(k) = (λ^k × e^(-λ)) / k!
Where λ = expected goals, k = actual goals scored
Scoreline Probability = P(Home = h) × P(Away = a)
Assumes home and away goals are independent events.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Poisson distribution fit into betting?
The Poisson distribution is a statistical model that estimates the probability of a set number of events (goals) landing within a fixed window. It’s a go-to in football betting for projecting match scorelines off expected goals averages.
Where do I get expected goals from?
You can grab expected goals (xG) straight from football stats sites. Or work out a team’s average goals scored per game from recent fixtures yourself. Sharper models layer in home advantage, opponent strength, and current form.
Can I trust the Poisson model?
Poisson gives you a solid baseline for football calls. Its key blind spot is that it treats goals as independent events, which doesn’t always hold (think momentum swings or red cards). It shines for pre-match reads in leagues with steady scoring trends.
Which markets does Poisson cover?
Poisson is most often deployed for 1X2 (match result), correct score, over/under goals, and both teams to score (BTTS). You can also flex it for Asian handicaps and half-time/full-time calls.